These are the top leagues, the ones that can reasonably expect to send half their teams or more to the NCAA Tournament this year.
Locks: Texas, Kansas
Probable: Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma
Bubble: Texas A&M
Wrong side of the bubble: Texas Tech
Conference Tournament: Sprint Center, Kansas City, March 13-16
http://www.big12sports.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/big12-m-baskbl-championship.html
Analysis: K-State’s four-game losing streak is moving the Wildcats ever closer to the bubble, but their strength of schedule (SoS) will see them through, barring a continuation of their collapse. Oklahoma’s in good shape after the win over A&M. Tech’s win over Texas gets them into the conversation, but they need more wins.
Locks: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State
Probable: Southern California
Bubble: Arizona, Arizona State
Wrong side of the bubble: Oregon, California
Conference Tournament: Staples Center, Los Angeles, March 12-15
http://www.pac-10.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/08-mbb-tourney.html
Analysis: With the nation’s #1 SoS, Arizona can make up for the mediocre W-L record but still needs a couple more wins. Likewise the Sun Devils still need another win or two to really feel good about their fate. Oregon probably needs to sweep the Arizona teams and win a game or two at Staples, and Cal is hoping for a miracle—sweeping the SoCal teams or getting to the conference tournament final.
Locks: Georgetown, Louisville, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Marquette, Pittsburgh
Probable: West Virginia
Wrong side of the bubble: Villanova, Syracuse
Conference Tournament: Madison Square Garden, New York, March 12-15
https://admin.xosn.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=92555&SPID=11228&DB_OEM_ID=19400&ATCLID=1394567
Analysis: Besides not slipping up against South Florida, Villanova will need a win at Providence to avoid sweating out the Big East Tournament.
Syracuse missed a great chance against Pittsburgh; now they need to beat Marquette at the Dome and Seton Hall on the road. Otherwise they’ll be headed into the Big East Tournament needing wins.
These conferences aren’t quite in the powerhouse category, but they still expect to place multiple at-large teams in the NCAA.
Locks: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami (FL)
Bubble: Maryland, Virginia Tech
Wrong side of the bubble: Wake Forest
Conference Tournament: Charlotte Bobcats Arena, Charlotte, March 13-16
http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/acc-mtournament-central-2008.html
Analysis: Maryland missed a big chance against Clemson. Beating Virginia is a must, and another win in the ACC Tournament would help the Terps relax.
Virginia Tech has played itself onto the bubble with a three-game winning streak, but still needs to beat Wake (home) or Clemson (away). Another win in Charlotte would be much-needed insurance.
Wake is in serious trouble; they need two wins plus a third in Charlotte.
Locks: Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Probable: Mississippi State, Arkansas
Bubble: Florida
Wrong side of the bubble: Kentucky, Ole Miss
Conference Tournament: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, March 13-16
http://secsports.com/index.php?s=&change_well_id=9959
Analysis: Florida needs a good win versus Tennessee or at Kentucky to feel comfortable.
Kentucky is like a Rohrschach test. Detractors see a mediocre win-loss record and terrible out-of-conference losses, whereas proponents point to the Cats’ fine SEC record amassed since the new year. The Cats played well without freshman phenomenon Patrick Patterson on Saturday, but they’ll need to win out and probably win one in Atlanta to make the field.
Ole Miss’s recent momentum is terrible. They’ll probably need at least two more wins just to blunt their miserable conference season, and even then it’s hard to make a case for a team that can’t break .500 in the weak SEC West.
Locks: Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan State
Wrong side of the bubble: Ohio State
Conference Tournament: Conseco Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, March 13-16
Analysis: A pretty cut-and-dried league. Last year’s runner-up Ohio State is fighting for its life with a four-game losing streak, but two big opportunities loom. Beating either Purdue or Michigan State at home may not be enough; the Buckeyes really need one of those and a win in Indy.
Locks: Xavier
Bubble: Massachusetts
Wrong side of the bubble: St. Joseph’s, Dayton, Rhode Island
Locks: Drake
Bubble: Illinois State
Wrong side of the bubble: Southern Illinois
Locks: Brigham Young
Probable: UNLV
Bubble: New Mexico
Lock: Memphis
Bubble: UAB
Wrong side of the bubble: Houston
These conferences have only one team that deserves to go as an at-large, but watch out! Conference tournament upsets could put a second team in, pushing someone else off the bubble.
Colonial - VCU
Horizon - Butler
MAC - Kent State
Southern - Davidson
Sun Belt - South Alabama
These conferences have no at-large potential. Whoever wins the conference tournament gets in, period. This sudden-death dynamic should make for some great battles over the next two weeks because none of these teams can take its status for granted—except for Cornell, safely in the field as the Ivy League champion.
Automatic bid clinched: Ivy League - Cornell
America East - UM - Baltimore County
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big Sky - Portland State
Big South - Winthrop or UNC-Asheville
Big West - Cal State-Northridge or CS-Fullerton
MAAC - Siena or Rider
MEAC - Morgan State
NEC - Robert Morris
OVC - Austin Peay
Patriot - American
Southland - Lamar or Stephen F. Austin
Summit - Oral Roberts
SWAC - Alabama State
WAC - Boise State